Australian Property Market Report

January 2026 | Foresight Property Research

Key Market Insights

National dwelling values rose 0.7% in December, the smallest monthly lift in five months, with Sydney and Melbourne down -0.1% each (the first month-on-month decline since January last year). Despite the late-year slowdown, 2025 delivered an 8.6% national gain, with regional markets (+9.7%) outperforming the capitals (+8.2%) over the calendar year.

Australia (Monthly)

+0.7%

Combined Capitals (Monthly)

+0.5%

Combined Regionals (Monthly)

+1.0%

Rental Yield Combined Capitals

3.4%

Australia (Annual)

+8.6%

Combined Capitals (Annual)

+8.2%

Combined Regionals (Annual)

+9.7%

Rental Yield Combined Regionals

4.2%

Capital Cities Performance

Capital City Monthly Growth Quarterly Growth Annual Growth Gross Yield Median Value Market Status
Sydney-0.1%+0.8%+5.8%3.0%$1,280,613Below Peak (-0.1%)
Melbourne-0.1%+0.8%+4.8%3.6%$827,117Below Peak (-0.9%)
Brisbane+1.6%+5.6%+14.5%3.4%$1,036,323Record High
Adelaide+1.9%+5.1%+8.8%3.5%$902,249Record High
Perth+1.9%+7.6%+15.9%3.9%$940,635Record High
Hobart+0.9%+3.6%+6.8%4.3%$720,341Below Peak (-5.4%)
Darwin+1.6%+5.4%+18.9%6.2%$586,912Record High
Canberra+0.2%+2.2%+4.9%4.0%$893,907Below Peak (-2.1%)

Regional Markets Performance

Regional Market Monthly Growth Quarterly Growth Annual Growth Gross Yield Market Characteristics
Regional NSW+0.7%+3.0%+7.4%4.1%More resilient; slower but steady demand
Regional Victoria+0.8%+2.5%+6.0%4.2%Recovery phase; lifestyle and affordability draw
Regional Queensland+1.2%+4.0%+12.6%4.2%Strong mining + coastal demand; outperformance
Regional South Australia+1.7%+3.5%+11.1%4.5%Broad-based growth; affordability still supportive
Regional Western Australia+1.9%+5.8%+16.1%5.5%Top performer; tight supply in resource regions
Regional Tasmania+1.7%+3.7%+6.7%4.5%Moderating conditions; mixed local performance
Regional Northern Territoryn/an/an/a7.9%Limited index coverage; yields remain highest

Regional Market Insights

Regional WA remains the national leader (+16.1% annual), supported by tight listings and strong labour markets, though momentum is easing into 2026.
Regional QLD continues to outperform (+12.6% annual), with growth concentrated in affordable and mining-linked corridors.
Regional SA stays resilient (+11.1% annual) as lifestyle and affordability appeal remain supportive.
Upper quartile drag: higher-priced markets are lagging (upper quartile +0.2% in December vs lower/middle +1.1%), indicating demand rotation to cheaper segments.
Monthly Growth by Capital City (December 2025)
Adelaide
1.9%
Perth
1.9%
Brisbane
1.6%
Darwin
1.6%
Hobart
0.9%
Canberra
0.2%
Sydney
-0.1%
Melbourne
-0.1%
Annual Growth by Capital City (Calendar year 2025)
Darwin
18.9%
Perth
15.9%
Brisbane
14.5%
Adelaide
8.8%
Hobart
6.8%
Sydney
5.8%
Canberra
4.9%
Melbourne
4.8%

Major Market Drivers

Growth Drivers

Persistent Supply Constraints: Listings remain 40%+ below average in Perth, with elevated buyer demand continuing to drive prices higher in mid-sized capitals.
Interest Rate Stability: While the RBA held rates in November, market sentiment remains positive with consumer confidence entering positive territory for the first time since February 2022.
Investment Activity Surge: Housing credit growth for investors rising at fastest pace since December 2014, with NSW recording highest share of investment activity (46.2% by value).
Government Incentives: Expanded 5% deposit guarantee and upcoming 'Help to Buy' shared equity program supporting first home buyer demand.

Market Challenges

Record Affordability Pressures: National dwelling value to household income ratio at record high of 8.2 times, with income required to service median mortgage at near-record 45.0%.
Inflation Rebound: Inflation rising above RBA target range creates expectation that interest rates won't be cut further in near term.
Credit Constraints: APRA's new 20% limit on high debt-to-income ratio lending (6x+) to take effect February 2026, though current impact expected to be marginal.
Auction Clearance Softening: Clearance rates trending lower since mid-September peak, falling below decade average in mid-November with Sydney and Melbourne in low 60% range.

Rental Market Trends

Gross yields remain higher in the regions (combined regionals 4.2%) than the capitals (3.4%).
Capital city yields range from Sydney (3.0%) up to Darwin (6.2%), reflecting wide affordability dispersion.
Rent growth is moderating as tenants hit affordability ceilings, but vacancy remains tight enough to keep rents supported.

Market Outlook

Looking ahead to 2026, market conditions are expected to soften compared with 2025 as affordability pressures persist and interest-rate uncertainty remains elevated. A limited supply response should help buffer the downside, but outcomes are likely to remain segmented by price point and region.

Geographic Divergence Persists: Mid-sized capitals, particularly Perth and Brisbane, expected to maintain outperformance driven by supply constraints and interstate migration. Sydney and Melbourne growth constrained by affordability barriers, with lower price points seeing fastest gains.

Supply Constraints Continue: Labor shortages and ongoing competition from public infrastructure limiting new construction, with builder profit margins remaining compressed especially in multi-unit sector. Construction costs stabilized but not falling.

Policy Impacts Mixed: Government first home buyer incentives supporting demand at lower price points, though this may only temporarily boost ownership without addressing long-term affordability. APRA's DTI lending limits expected to have marginal impact on overall market.

Data sourced from Cotality Home Value Index December 2025 • This report provides general market information and should not be considered as financial advice