Australian Property Market Update

July 2025 | Foresight Property Research

Key Market Insights

National housing values rose 1.4% over Q2 2025, accelerating from 0.9% in Q1. Annual growth reached 3.4%, with quarterly momentum suggesting the growth trend is moving through a low point. Regional markets (1.6%) continue to outperform capitals (1.4%) quarterly, though the performance gap is narrowing with stronger monthly gains in capitals through May and June.

Australia (Quarterly)

+1.4%

Combined Capitals (Quarterly)

+1.4%

Combined Regionals (Quarterly)

+1.6%

Rental Yield Combined Capitals

3.5%

Australia (Annual)

+3.4%

Combined Capitals (Annual)

+2.7%

Combined Regionals (Annual)

+5.5%

Rental Yield Combined Regionals

4.4%

Capital Cities Performance

Capital City 3-Month Growth Annual Growth Rental Growth (Annual) Gross Yield Market Status Key Characteristics
Sydney +1.1% +1.3% +1.9% 3.1% Record High Strong quarterly momentum, premium market resilience
Melbourne +1.1% -0.4% +1.2% 3.7% 3.9% below peak Recovering from correction, improving quarterly growth
Brisbane +2.0% +7.0% +3.8% 3.7% Record High Sustained strong growth, interstate migration driver
Adelaide +1.1% +8.0% +4.7% 3.7% Record High Consistently strong performer, affordability advantage
Perth +2.1% +7.0% +4.9% 4.3% Record High Mining sector strength, supply constraints
Hobart +0.9% +2.0% +5.3% 4.4% 10.2% below peak Stabilising after correction, rental strength
Darwin +4.9% +6.0% +6.2% 6.5% Record High Strongest quarterly growth, new peak after 11 years
Canberra +1.3% +0.3% +1.6% 4.1% 5.3% below peak Modest recovery, government employment stability

Regional Markets Performance

Regional Market 3-Month Growth Annual Growth Rental Growth (Annual) Gross Yield Market Characteristics
Regional NSW +1.1% +3.5% +4.6% 4.1% Steady growth, coastal demand strong
Regional Victoria +1.4% +1.0% +4.2% 4.3% Recovery underway, tree-change appeal
Regional Queensland +2.0% +7.9% +5.6% 4.4% Mining regions driving growth
Regional South Australia +3.3% +11.6% +5.7% 4.6% Outstanding performance, wine regions strong
Regional Western Australia +2.7% +11.9% +10.3% 5.9% Mining boom effects, highest yields
Regional Tasmania -0.4% +2.9% +2.7% 4.6% Mixed conditions, tourism recovery
Regional Northern Territory +0.6% -1.9% +4.1% 7.7% Volatile conditions, high yields compensate

Regional Market Insights

Regional WA continues to lead annual growth at 11.9%, driven by mining sector strength and severe supply constraints in resource towns.
Regional SA posted exceptional quarterly growth of 3.3%, with wine regions and lifestyle markets attracting tree-changers.
Regional Queensland benefits from ongoing mining activity with 7.9% annual growth, particularly in coal and gas regions.
Regional Victoria shows signs of recovery with improved quarterly momentum as Melbourne's correction moderates.
Quarterly Growth by Capital City
Darwin
4.9%
Perth
2.1%
Brisbane
2.0%
Canberra
1.3%
Sydney
1.1%
Melbourne
1.1%
Adelaide
1.1%
Hobart
0.9%
Annual Growth by Capital City
Adelaide
8.0%
Brisbane
7.0%
Perth
7.0%
Darwin
6.0%
Hobart
2.0%
Sydney
1.3%
Canberra
0.3%
Melbourne
-0.4%

Major Market Drivers

Growth Drivers

Interest Rate Relief: RBA cash rate held at 3.85% in July, with further cuts expected to reach low 3% range by year-end, improving affordability.
Supply Constraints: New listings at 33,159 nationally (-11.7% vs 2024), lowest for this time of year since 2020.
Migration Patterns: Ongoing interstate movement supporting Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide markets with strong demand.
Market Conditions: Auction clearance rates averaging 64.8%, above decade average of 64.6%.

Market Challenges

Affordability Pressures: Sydney median at $1.21M limiting buyer pool, Melbourne recovering from correction.
Construction Activity: Dwelling approvals 23.9% below national housing accord targets despite recent uptick.
Market Dynamics: Days on market rising to 35 days nationally, up from 29 days in Q2 2024.
Economic Uncertainty: Global factors and policy responses creating cautious lending environment.

Rental Market Trends

Deceleration Continues: National rental growth eased to smallest Q2 increase (1.3%) since 2020, though annual growth remains at 3.4%.
Capital vs Regional: Regional rental growth (5.3%) significantly outpacing capitals (2.7%), reflecting affordability migration patterns.
Yield Stability: National gross yields steady at 3.7% for 31st consecutive month, though tightening expected as value growth accelerates.
Market Variations: Darwin leads yields at 6.5%, while Sydney records lowest at 3.1% despite premium market positioning.

Market Outlook

Near-term Outlook: With quarterly growth accelerating and the annual trend likely moving through a low point, the growth trend is expected to gradually rise in the second half of 2025. Further RBA rate cuts anticipated to support sentiment and buying power.

Regional Leadership: Regional markets expected to maintain outperformance, particularly in WA and SA, driven by mining sector strength and lifestyle migration trends.

Capital City Recovery: Sydney and Brisbane at record highs with Darwin achieving new peak after 11 years. Melbourne's recovery gaining momentum as correction effects fade.

Supply-Demand Imbalance: With 44.8% of suburbs nationally at peak values and listing volumes at historic lows, supply constraints likely to support continued price appreciation across most markets.

Data sourced from Cotality Monthly Housing Chart Pack July 2025 • This report provides general market information and should not be considered as financial advice